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Expected change in mean IDEA value, calculated as the difference between the forecast value and the last observed value.

Left grey bars = increasing conflict expected

Right grey bars = increasing cooperation expected

The IDEA scale attributes a value of conflict or cooperation to each event type. The scale is in principal open, but was here defined to range between -13 and +13. Cooperative event types have positive values; negative event types have negative values.

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Observed values: These point indicate mean observed IDEA values for 90 preceding events starting from the first day of each of the last 12 months for the given region or country.

Last observed value: This is the last observed mean value over 90 preceding events calculated from the current date for the given region or country.

Forecast value: This is the forecast value +- 1 Standard error of the mean. It is a statistical estimate of the average conflict potential in the proceeding month in the given region or country.

Forecast values are statistical model estimates that can only give an indication of an expected direction of change based on the FAST data. The reliability of these estimates is dependent on the sample size of a given region or country and on the size of the variance indicated as error bar above and below the forecast value. Forecast values are most usefully interpreted in the context of region or country expertise.

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Number of events: Number of event entries in FAST data base for given region or country

Expected change: Difference between forecast and last observed value as percentage of the IDEA scale between -13 and +13

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